One admittedly unscientific way that I have been monitoring the economy over the past 18+ months is to count the number of sold ads published in the local version of Coffee News http://www.coffeenewsusa.com/whatis.html
Coffee News is a weekly standard-templated "news sheet" that is distributed free to restaurants, libraries and other local entities where there is high public traffic.
Here's how it works: The national Coffee News company provides the local publisher/editor with most of the content, leaving a bit of room for some localization. Keep in mind, this is not heavy journalism. It is meant to be a nice light reading diversion, often with a humorous twist.
The business model works like most any distributed free periodical. The local publisher/editor sells advertising and then entices locations around the region to host a Coffee News rack for free, with the idea that it would add value to their business.
I have to admit, given the way folks are glued to their smartphones these days, I have wondered whether a print vehicle like Coffee News is still relevant. Hmmm, I'll see if I can get the local publisher/editor listed above, Pat Huber, to comment on that.
Anyway, throughout the economic tsunami, I have been counting the number of ads sold in each issue I come across. To my count, the Coffe News template allows for 32 available ad spaces in each issue (8 spaces down along the left and right on both the front and back.)
This weekend, in the version I picked up at the diner we frequent, I counted 18 of the 32 being sold ads. (Unsold spaces are filled in with free PSA-type spots and written promos urging readers to consider advertisiing with Coffee News, etc.) At one point over the past 18 monts, I counted just 12 of 32 sold ads.
So, does that mean we are on the road back economically speaking -- or is Pat becoming a more savvy seller in these challenging times?
Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below.
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As any advertising media salesperson will tell you, sales of space (print) and time (radio/TV) follow cycles, some of which are predictable, like holidays etc., and some of which are not. I think you will find some agreement on the effect of economic cycles, which is that some businesses cut back advertising in good times (because they're already running on all cylinders) and some in bad time (because they're strapped for cash), but most pursue a steady budgetary plan, usually several years in length. Your data can support many theories. For example, in bad times like these, some advertising outlets go out of business, and advertisers re-allocate to other venues. However, when there is widespread unemployment, many more people undertake small businesses, and so the small space sales earlier at Coffee News could reflect a temporary rise in competition, some of which could not survive. However, I admire your attempt to read the tea leaves, because as it turns out, there is no real science of economics despite an annual Nobel Prize, and your guess is as good as Ben Bernanke's.
ReplyDelete(This is from my good friend Mary Price - DR)
ReplyDeleteI have followed the economy much the same way since 1989. I have mostly worked off of Gude Drive in Rockville for these 20 years. During this time we have experienced several recession/downturn periods. Smith Lithograph is a large printing plant right on Gude. I can judge the economy by how many employee cars there are in the lot and also how many on a night shift. It looks like about 60% right now. I'll keep watching....Mary Price, Rockville, MD